⚠HOLD — 30% confidence. Everything below is conditional on validation passing. See the 3 validation tests
SynthoraHOLD · Phase 0
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Product blueprint

What Phase 1 would build, if validation passes

Give every pre-seed founder the cited research, deterministic financial model, and honest go/hold/no-go call that today only a $1,500–$50,000 consultant provides — in minutes, for a fraction of the price.

The only work item that should start immediately is the validation plan — three tests, $9,500, 45 days. If the demand test and the willingness-to-pay test both fail, this PRD should not be built. If only the reliability test fails, restrict any build to a human-reviewed delivery model.

The gap this fills

Current solutionKey gap
LivePlan / Upmetrics ($7–40/mo)Subscription, template-driven forecasts, not a founder-approved, code-computed model
Preuve AI / IdeaProof ($21–499 one-time)Overlapping scope at lower price; no confirmed deterministic engine or full bundle
Business-plan consultants ($1,500–$50,000)Accurate and trusted, but slow (weeks) and unaffordable pre-seed
ChatGPT Plus / Claude Pro ($20/mo)Cheap and fast, but no deterministic engine, no cited-vs-assumed labeling

Phase 1 scope (conditional)

In scope

Idea intake, cited research, founder-approved deterministic financial model, go/hold/no-go decision engine, full document/deck/MVP/site generation, one-time checkout for five SKUs, cited-vs-assumed labeling throughout.

Out of scope (Phase 1)

Subscription plans, non-US markets, fully unattended delivery without a founder-approval gate, multi-provider automatic AI failover.

Success metrics if Phase 1 ships

CategoryMetricTarget
Unit economicsLTV:CAC ratio≥ 3.30x base / ≥ 1.20x pessimistic
PaybackPayback period0 months base / ≤ 4 months pessimistic
AI reliabilityCitation fabrication rate< 5%, matching the Phase 0 pass bar
AI costAI gross margin at p90 usage≥ 98.7%
GrowthMonthly revenue at month 12$14,560 base-case projection
Financial healthRunway4.5 months on $50,000 pre-revenue

Timeline (all dates conditional on M0)

M0
Validation complete

Day 45. All 3 Phase 0 tests report results; go/hold/no-go decision re-run either way.

M1
Pipeline alpha

~+4 weeks after M0 pass. Intake → decision engine runs end-to-end without manual re-typing.

M2
Founder Pack beta

~+8 weeks after M0 pass. Citation-accuracy eval stays under the 5% fabrication bar.

M3
Public launch

~+10 weeks after M0 pass. First 5 real paid packs delivered and reviewed.